'중국은 가고 한국이 온다' - 워렌 버핏이 한국에 열중하는 이유’

'중국은 가고 한국이 온다' - 워렌 버핏이 한국에 열중하는 이유

 

 

‘중국은 가고 한국이 온다. 한국은 아시아의 투자 1번지. 매력적인 주가, 건강한 부채비율, 탄탄한 제조업 저력이 손짓한다.’ 세계적인 투자의 귀재 워렌 버핏이 한국투자에 적극적인 까닭이다. 미국 경제주간 비즈니스위크는 ‘워렌 버핏이 한국에 열중하는 이유’란 제목의 한국 경제 분석에서 한국은 세계 포트폴리오 운용자들에게 ‘고수익 투자처’라고 논평했다. “한국은 세계에서 가장 매력적인 가격의 시장 중 하나”라는 버핏의 평가도 곁들였다. 버핏은 지난달 아시아 방문 중 중국에 대한 지나친 접근을 경계하면서도 한국주식에 대해서는 자신감을 드러냈다. 투명성 제고와 구조조정 이끈 개혁이 주가상승 밑바탕 한국의 증시가 성장궤도에 오르고 한국기업들의 부채비율이 건강한 수준으로 떨어진 것은 아시아 금융위기 이후 한국에 글로벌 기업기준이 도입되고 정부의 개혁정책에 따라 투명성이 제고된 데 토대를 둔다. “과거 한국시장은 투명성과 유동성 부족으로 디스카운트 수준에서 거래되었으나 이들 부문의 대폭 개선으로 적어도 40대기업 혹은 50대기업의 경우 디스카운트는 사라지고 있다.” 모건스탠리 한국지점 양호철 대표의 말이다. 지난 10년간의 기업구조조정은 한국 회사들의 재정건전성을 향상시키기도 했다고 비즈니스위크는 지적한다. 1990년대 말 자산가치의 4배까지 불어났던 한국기업들의 평균 부채비율은 100% 밑으로 축소됐다. 한국개발연구원(KDI) 임경묵 이코노미스트는 “경기하강기를 극복하고 다음번 상승기에서 풍성한 이익을 거둘 정도로 충분한 현금을 축적한 한국기업들이 많다”고 지적한다.

‘워렌 버핏이 한국에 열중하는 이유’란 제목의 비즈니스위크 기사 조선 건설 석유화학 등 굴뚝산업 저력 탄탄 서브프라임 파동으로 터진 미국의 신용위기와 천정부지로 치솟는 국제유가 그리고 인플레 우려를 내포한 중국의 경기과열 등 글로벌 환경에서 한국도 무풍지대는 아니나 최근의 증시추락에도 불구하고 코스피지수가 작년 말 대비 30% 상승한 사실에 비즈니스위크는 주목했다. 고도성장 가도를 달리는 중국과 오일달러가 풍성한 중동은 한국기업들에게 풍어(豊漁)를 약속하는 어장이다. 비즈니스위크는 ‘세계의 공장’으로 변모하는 중국의 해운 물동량을 감당할 신규 선박수요는 최소 2010년까지는 강세를 유지할 것이며 따라서 세계 조선시장을 장악한 현대중공업, 삼성중공업, 대우조선해양 등 한국 선박메이커들의 호황도 끄떡없다고 내다본다. 오일달러 풍성한 중동은 한국 건설산업에 노다지 고유가는 석유수요를 전적으로 수입에 의존하는 한국에 일대타격이 되면서도 한국의 건설, 토목, 엔지니어링 산업에는 ‘노다지’가 되는 아이러니를 낳고 있기도 하다. 국제시장에서 들어오는 오일달러를 쓸어 담기에 바쁜 중동 산유국들은 그 상당부분을 신규 정유시설, 석유화학공장, 고속도로, 해수탈염공장 등을 건설하는 데 대대적으로 쏟아 붓고 있다. 그리고 이들 분야는 바로 한국기업들이 강세를 보이는 영역이다. 중동시장의 활발한 건설발주 추세가 가까운 장래에 둔화될 조짐은 없다. 중동 건설 붐은 적어도 2010년 말까지는 계속될 것으로 업계에서는 전망한다. 미국경제 의존도 감소도 좋은 소식 한국경제의 미국경제 의존도가 감소하고 있는 현상은 미국의 소비가 둔화되고 있는 가운데 또 하나의 좋은 소식이다. KTB자산운용 장인환 사장은 비즈니스위크 인터뷰에서 “한국경제는 어느 정도까지 미국경제에서 떨어져 나왔다”면서 미국 소비위축의 한국 내 영향은 수년 전보다는 훨씬 온건하게 느껴질 것이라고 지적했다. 균형과 탄력을 키운 한국의 산업은 소비자들의 신뢰를 얻고 있다. 점점 많은 한국소비자들이 부동산과 은행예금보다는 주식에 투자하고 있다. 주식형펀드에 유입된 자금 규모는 작년 말의 500억 달러에서 이달에는 1110억 달러로 급증한 것으로 전해졌다. 이렇게 볼 때 “단기 조정과 변동은 불가피하나 장기적으로는 기업수익성 향상과 유동성 증가가 한국시장을 밀어 올릴 것”이라고 장인환 사장은 예측했다. (2007-11-23 FMTV 편집국)

BusinessWeek                                                                                                                                                                                                                            INVESTING November 21, 2007, 8:25AM EST                                                 Why Warren Buffett's Keen on Korea "Attractively priced" stocks, healthy debt ratios, plus solid manufacturing prowess                                                                                             position Korea to profit from growth in China and the Mideast by Moon Ihlwan In other parts of the world, South Korea's gross domestic product growth-projected at around 5% this year- would make it a high-profile destination for portfolio managers. But since Korea is in Asia, the country is largely overshadowed by the dazzling economic performances of China and India. As concerns grow about overvalued Chinese and Indian stocks, though, money managers shuffling their Asian portfolios are finding Korea increasingly attractive. For American billionaire investor Warren Buffett, for example, China is out, and Korea is in. During his visit to Asia late last month, Buffett cautioned against overreaching in China. Yet he expressed confidence in Korean equities, describing the country as one of the world's most attractively priced markets."   Indeed, Buffett's holding in Korean steelmaker Posco (PKXFF) is one of his top-performing stock invest- ments this year. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) spent $572 million over the past three years or so for a 4% stake in Posco, one of the most profitable steelmakers on the planet, and that stake is now worth well over $2 billion. Berkshire recently sold off its shares in PetroChina, the only Chinese company it owned, but Buffett said during his brief visit to Korea on Oct. 25 that he would hang on to Posco. "It's a great company and great companies get worth more and more," he said.   Certainly Korea is not immune to the turmoil shaking markets worldwide. Shocks from the U.S. credit crisis and soaring oil prices have pared the Seoul exchange's benchmark Kospi index by around 9% this month. Weaker-than-expected tech demand has sent prices nose-diving in memory chips (BusinessWeek.com, 6/15/07), where the Koreans rule.   Samsung Electronics (SSNGY), the bellwether for the country's information technology sector, has fallen nearly 15% this year and has laid off some 1,600 workers, almost 2% of its workforce.   Korea Excels in Shipbuilding   Still, the benchmark Kospi index is up about 30% from the end of last year, a reflection of strong growth in other parts of the Korean economy. A major attraction is the country's manufacturing prowess in diversified industries. Korea's shipbuilding, steel, petrochemical, and other smokestack companies are booming as emerging economies spend heavily to build up their infrastructure and as their shipping trade explodes. "A number of Korean companies are dominant forces in cyclical industries and have historically outperformed their global peers when their industries are in an upswing," says Yang Ho Chull, chief executive of Morgan Stanley (MS) Korea. "What's particularly attractive for portfolio managers is the strong performance of these companies, fueled by the rapid growth of China."   Consider the shipbuilding industry. As China turns into the factory of the world, demand for new ships to carry China trade is expected to remain strong until at least 2010, according to a report by the Bank of Korea, the central bank in Seoul. That means Korea's shipbuilding firms, which built 41% of all ships delivered last year and include the world's top three players- Hyundai Heavy Industries (HYHZF), Samsung Heavy Industries(SMSHF), and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Engineering (DWOSF) - will enjoy a boom(BusinessWeek.com,5/18/07) for a few more years.   The influx of shipbuilding revenue to Korea is so huge that the central bank warned this month against further appreciation of the Korean currency.

The shipbuilders, who are sitting on enough work for almost four years, cash in their future revenues to be received in dollars on the forward market to hedge against currency risks. Banks that take up the forward deals then sell dollars for the won on the spot market to offset their dollar forward purchases, and subsequently borrow dollars abroad to settle their spot deals, in the process pushing up the won. Little wonder the share price of Hyundai Heavy, the global shipbuilding leader, has more than tripled so far this year. on Nov. 8, the world's top shipbuilder released its third-quarter results, reporting that its

net profit more than doubled, to $475 million, from $230 million in the July-September period last year.

Greater Transparency Means Higher Stock Prices

Other cyclical sectors such as steel and petrochemical industries are also benefiting from rapid

development of emerging markets. LG Chem (LGCLY), Korea's largest petrochemical company, churns

out products ranging from plastics to flooring and automotive parts. It posted a 73% jump in its net profit,

to $229 million, in the third quarter. LG shares have jumped 120% so far this year.

 

The introduction of global corporate standards in Korea since the 1997 Asian crisis has also paved the

way for share gains. "In the past, the Korean market has traded at a relative discount because of a lack

of transparency and liquidity; but with significant improvement in these areas, the discount, at least for

the leading 40 or 50 Korean companies, is disappearing. It is no longer a major issue," reckons Yang at

Morgan Stanley.

 

Corporate restructuring since the crisis has also improved the financial health of Korean companies. Economist Lim Kyung Mook at Korea Development Institute, a government-funded think tank, points out

that the country's average corporate debt, which used to be as high as four times equity in the late

1990s, has been cut to below 100% of equity. "Many Korean companies are now sitting on a cash pile

big enough for them to weather a downturn and reap handsome profits from the next upturn," Lim says.

Higher Oil Prices Help Korean Contractors

Take LG.Philips LCD (LPL), which has maintained its debt level well below half its equity. The world's second-largest maker of liquid-crystal display (LCD) panels was bleeding red ink for four consecutive quarters until March of this year because of a supply glut in the industry. Yet the company last month

reported a net profit of $573 million for the July-September period, its strongest profit in 13 quarters,

against a loss of $249 million a year earlier, as demand for thin panels for computers and TVs grew.

 

Even an upsurge in oil prices is translating into a bonanza for engineering and construction companies

in oil-importing Korea. That's because the Koreans take a big chunk of the red-hot Middle East

construction market. Much of the money earned from high oil prices is spent in building new refineries, petrochemical plants, highways and water desalinization plants, where Korean contractors are strong.

 

There's no sign the stream of new construction orders will slow soon. In Dubai, the world's largest

building, the world's largest indoor ski slope, and three artificial islands shaped like palm trees are

all under construction. Saudi Arabia is building the $27 billion King Abdullah Economic City. And

Kuwait plans to double its refining capacity at a cost of $14 billion. "The Middle East countries have

never been so determined to set up their own industrial base," says Hong Sung Il, a general manager

at Samsung Engineering (SGRGF), a specialist plant contractor whose share price more than doubled

so far this year. "The construction boom there will continue at least until the end of this decade."

Korean companies have won $25.6 billion worth of construction contracts in the first nine months of

this year, up from $12.6 billion a year earlier, according to Seoul's Construction & Transportation

Ministry.

Decoupling from the U.S. Economy

The dwindling dependence of Korea's cyclical industries on the U.S. economy is good news in the

face of slower consumer spending in America (BusinessWeek.com, 11/26/07). "To some extent, the

Korean economy has been decoupled from the U.S. economy," says Chang In Hwan, chief executive

at Seoul fund manager KTB Asset Management. "A spending crunch in America will be felt much more

mildly here now than it was a few years ago," he says.

 

Encouraged by the more balanced industrial strength, a growing number of Korean consumers are

putting their money in stocks instead of in real estate and bank deposits. The amount of money in equity

mutual funds, or investment trust funds as they are known locally, reached $111 billion this month, up

from $50 billion at the end of last year. "Short-term corrections and fluctuations are inevitable, but in the

longer term better corporate profitability and improved liquidity will drive the Korean market upward," says Chang.

 

Moon is BusinessWeek's Seoul bureau chief